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March 2020

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Mon, 9 Mar 2020 17:21:58 -0400
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Jeff Kantor <[log in to unmask]>
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"Chemical Engineers in Computing and Systems Technology, AIChE" <[log in to unmask]>
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Jeff Kantor <[log in to unmask]>
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I'm sharing with you a Jupyter/Python notebook that I created last week for my Spring course in process control. The notebook implements a standard SEIR model for the outbreak of COVID-19 on a hypothetical campus of 20,000 students. It is available at my github repository:

https://github.com/jckantor/covid-19

As you might expect, this model and application stimulated much classroom discussion, and provides a 'teaching moment' as new information becomes available over the course of the next weeks and months. For example, the model includes a control term that can be used to explore the impact of social distancing strategies. As students can see from simulation, social distancing doesn't have to reduce transmission to zero to be effective. Any reduction in transmission reduces the severity of a campus outbreak. With sufficient reduction, a state of 'herd immunity' can be achieved.

Hopefully others may also find this a useful way to show students the power and value of the skills they are learning in process control and dynamics.

Jeff

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